Bob Brinker Has My Future

Updated 5/01

What is it about Wall Street? People who work with stocks are prime candidates for Gamblers Anonymous. Yet we rush to give them our money. "No! Trust Us! The odds on THIS game are in your favor! I've got a can't lose strategy!"

Normally I'd say, let the lemmings play, not my problem. Unfortunately, it is my problem. I'm looking at Bob Brinker's Marketimer. I didn't pay the $185 for a subscription. This is the guy who runs my 401k. This is my retirement money.

This is the guy who wrote the following sentence: "We believe the the probability of recession in 1998 is close to zero despite the claims of those who warn the Asian meltdown will sink the good ship U.S.A. this year. " Tote that meltdown! Mix that metaphor!

OK, you say, he's subliterate. He's addicted to the phrase, "the bad news bears", as in, "the bad news bears are now paying dearly for their overly negative assessment of the Asian problem. . ." But that doesn't make him, necessarily, a stupid person. How 'bout this? He calculates the percentage of market advisors who are bulls, and uses that as a trigger for when to sell or buy. Gee, he's made averaging other people's guesses into a scientific method. How else would he have concluded that the gauge turns unfavorable at exactly 57%?

How about results, you say? All the histories for his funds start on 1-88 or later. Last big crash was. . . hmm. . .oh, about September 1987. Check the page. There are tougher things than making money in a 10-year bull market.

Probably the worst thing about this is that Bob Brinker is no worse than just about anyone else making predictions on Wall Street. They work on commissions and selling advice. It's not their money. It's mine.

UPDATE 5/01: Some people who lost a lot of money online found me through this article. (Hi guys!) Turns out that he told people to pull their money out of stocks, and then he told them to dump it all into high-volatility stocks. . . just before the crash. I stand by my previous statement: he's just as competent as anyone else on the Street. In my new job, some other idiot runs my 401K.

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